Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 8.561633 10.101988 11.799142 13.802184 16.095716 18.633766 21.648724
2025-01-12 6.228642 8.199359 10.577011 13.634162 17.435558 21.979843 27.793388
2025-01-19 4.797020 6.932834 9.714127 13.551218 18.649411 25.125699 33.899029
2025-01-26 4.098444 6.408032 9.612930 14.296229 20.858488 29.603749 41.989738
2025-02-02 3.538110 5.938028 9.462195 14.878397 22.824042 33.853866 50.071297
2025-02-09 3.127996 5.597936 9.413950 15.546357 24.910604 38.375551 58.816663
2025-02-16 2.650856 5.056758 8.964485 15.522616 25.929769 41.403170 65.610828
2025-02-23 2.180252 4.435363 8.285639 15.029418 26.139640 43.199245 70.666637
2025-03-02 1.781502 3.863461 7.597102 14.413859 26.055823 44.488252 74.981670
2025-03-09 1.546340 3.551399 7.307566 14.420127 26.953094 47.326839 81.821975
2025-03-16 1.355715 3.290799 7.070484 14.478925 27.921616 50.317160 89.055925
2025-03-23 1.178478 3.023967 6.781563 14.401283 28.628436 52.900739 95.759417
2025-03-30 0.974571 2.663749 6.267826 13.858198 28.484870 54.096232 100.343701
2025-04-06 0.850428 2.461068 6.044678 13.849420 29.311594 57.006212 107.994550
2025-04-13 0.742213 2.273775 5.825502 13.818777 30.085454 59.863288 115.713855
2025-04-20 0.706102 2.262392 5.990113 14.595298 32.472333 65.747587 129.044173
2025-04-27 0.660505 2.216497 6.068967 15.194531 34.551427 71.188296 141.868360
2025-05-04 0.623686 2.187369 6.182173 15.877072 36.845189 77.152301 155.933166
2025-05-11 0.551360 2.039937 5.988915 15.853641 37.685784 80.427963 165.254994
2025-05-18 0.465343 1.829816 5.606766 15.351503 37.475557 81.670519 170.863535
2025-05-25 0.386787 1.621603 5.194382 14.724498 36.933271 82.214480 175.161091
2025-06-01 0.343954 1.520845 5.052230 14.730910 37.766589 85.512157 184.854058
2025-06-08 0.308032 1.434829 4.937381 14.790820 38.719851 89.098193 195.271368